Improving detection probabilities for pests in stored grain

BACKGROUND: The presence of insects in stored grains is a significant problem for grain farmers, bulk grain handlers and distributors worldwide. Inspections of bulk grain commodities is essential to detect pests and therefore to reduce the risk of their presence in exported goods. It has been well documented that insect pests cluster in response to factors such as microclimatic conditions within bulk grain. Statistical sampling methodologies for grains, however, have typically considered pests and pathogens to be homogeneously distributed throughout grain commodities. In this paper we demonstrate a sampling methodology that accounts for the heterogeneous distribution of insects in bulk grains. RESULTS: We show that failure to account for the heterogeneous distribution of pests may lead to overestimates of the capacity for a sampling program to detect insects in bulk grains. Our results indicate the importance of the proportion of grain that is infested in addition to the density of pests within the infested grain. We also demonstrate that the probability of detecting pests in bulk grains increases as the number of sub-samples increases, even when the total volume or mass of grain sampled remains constant. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the importance of considering an appropriate biological model when developing sampling methodologies for insect pests. Accounting for a heterogeneous distribution of pests leads to a considerable improvement in the detection of pests over traditional sampling models

A high spatial resolution X-ray and H-alpha study of hot gas in the halos of star-forming disk galaxies. II. Quantifying supernova feedback

We investigate how the empirical properties of hot X-ray-emitting gas in a sample of seven starburst and three normal edge-on spiral galaxies (a sample which covers the full range of star-formation intensity found in disk galaxies) correlate with the size, mass, star formation rate and star formation intensity in the host galaxies. Intriguingly, the diffuse X-ray properties of the normal spirals (both in their disks and halos) fall where extrapolation of the trends from the starburst galaxies with superwinds would predict. We demonstrate that the luminosity of diffuse X-ray emission in both disk and halo is directly proportional to the rate of mechanical energy feedback from massive stars. Nevertheless, with only three non-starburst normal spiral galaxies it is hard to exclude an accretion-based origin for extra-planar diffuse X-ray emission around normal star-forming galaxies. Larger galaxies have more extended X-ray-emitting halos, but galaxy mass appears to play no role in determining the properties of the disk or extra-planar X-ray emitting plasma. The combination of these luminosity and size correlations leads to a correlation between the surface brightness of the diffuse X-ray emission and the mean star formation rate per unit area in the disk (L_FIR/D_25^2). We argue that the crucial spatial region around a galaxy that controls whether gas in starburst-driven superwinds will escape into the IGM is not the outer halo ~100 kpc from the host galaxy, but the inner few halo scale heights, within ~20 kpc of the galaxy plane. Given the properties of the gaseous halos we observe, superwind outflows from disk galaxies of mass M ~ 10^10 -- 10^11 Msun should still eject some fraction of their material into the IGM. (abstract abridged)Comment: To appear in 2004 May 10 edition of ApJ. For slightly higher resolution version, see http://proteus.pha.jhu.edu/~dks/dks_published.htm

A high spatial resolution X-ray and H-alpha study of hot gas in the halos of star-forming disk galaxies. I. Spatial and spectral properties of the diffuse X-ray emission

We present arcsecond resolution Chandra X-ray and ground-based optical H-alpha imaging of a sample of ten edge-on star-forming disk galaxies (seven starburst and three ``normal'' spiral galaxies), a sample which covers the full range of star-formation intensity found in disk galaxies. We use the unprecedented spatial resolution of the Chandra X-ray observatory to robustly remove point sources, and hence obtain the X-ray properties of the diffuse thermal emission alone. The X-ray observations are combined with comparable-resolution H-alpha and R-band imaging, and presented as a mini-atlas of images on a common spatial and surface brightness scale. The vertical distribution of the halo-region X-ray surface brightness is best described as an exponential, with the observed scale heights lying in the range H_eff = 2 -- 4 kpc. The ACIS X-ray spectra of extra-planar emission from all these galaxies can be fit with a common two-temperature spectral model with an enhanced alpha-to-iron element ratio. This is consistent with the origin of the X-ray emitting gas being either metal-enriched merged SN ejecta or shock-heated ambient halo or disk material with moderate levels of metal depletion onto dust. The thermal X-ray emission observed in the halos of the starburst galaxies is either this pre-existing halo medium, which has been swept-up and shock heated by the starburst-driven wind, or wind material compressed near the walls of the outflow by reverse shocks within the wind. In either case the X-ray emission provides us with a powerful probe of the properties of gaseous halos around star-forming disk galaxies.Comment: To appear in April 2004 edition of ApJS. For high resolution version, see http://proteus.pha.jhu.edu/~dks/ Accepted version, now has nuclear and total diffuse emission fluxes and luminosities, a few other minor change

Utilisation of seed resources by small mammals : a two-way interaction

Within the Australian wet tropics bioregion, only 900 000 hectares of once continuous rainforest habitat between Townsville and Cooktown now remains. While on the Atherton Tableland, only 4% of the rainforest that once occurred there remains today with remnant vegetation now forming a matrix of rainforest dispersed within agricultural land (sugarcane, banana, orchard crops, townships and pastoral land). Some biologists have suggested that remnants often support both faunal and floral communities that differ significantly from remaining continuous forest. Australian tropical forests possess a relatively high diversity of native small mammal species particularly rodents, which unlike larger mammalian and avian frugivores elsewhere, have been shown to be resilient to the effects of fragmentation, patch isolation and reduction in patch size. While small mammals often become the dominant mammalian frugivores, in terms of their relative abundance, the relationship that exists between habitat diversity and structure, and the impacts of small mammal foraging within fragmented habitat patches in Australia, is still poorly understood. The relationship between foraging behaviour and demography of two small mammal species, Rattus fuscipes and Melomys cervinipes, and food resources in fragmented rainforest sites, were investigated in the current study. Population densities of both species were strongly related with overall density of seed resources in all rainforest fragments. The distribution of both mammal species however, was found to be independent of the distribution of seed resources. Seed utilisation trials indicated that M.cervinipes and R.fuscipes had less impact on seed resources (extent of seed harvesting) than did other rainforest frugivores. Experimental feeding trials demonstrated that in 85% of fruit species tested, rodent feeding increased seed germination by a factor of 3.5 suggesting that in Australian tropical rainforest remnants, small mammals may play a significant role in enhancing germination of large seeded fruits. This study has emphasised the role of small mammals in tropical rainforest systems in north eastern Australia, in particular, the role that they play within isolated forest fragments where larger frugivorous species may be absent

The foraging behaviour of the Black rat (Rattus rattus) within Australian macadamia orchards

The black rat (Rattus rattus) has been shown to be the primary species responsible for causing significant crop losses within the Australian macadamia industry. This species success within macadamia orchards is directly related to the flexibility expressed in its foraging behaviour. In this paper a conceptual foraging model is presented which proposes that the utilisation of resources by rodents within various components of the system is related not only to their relative abundance, but also to predator avoidance behaviour. Nut removal from high predation risk habitats during periods of low resource abundance in low risk compartments of the system is considered an essential behaviour that allows high rodent densities to be maintained throughout the year

Geostatistical analysis of adult Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) in wheat stored at constant temperatures

Insect monitoring and sampling programmes are used in the stored grains industry for the detection and estimation of insect pests. At the low pest densities dictated by economic and commercial requirements, the accuracy of both detection and abundance estimates can be influenced by variations in the spatial structure of pest populations over short distances. Geostatistical analysis of Rhyzopertha dominica populations in 2 dimensions showed that, in both the horizontal and vertical directions and at all temperatures examined, insect numbers were positively correlated over short (0-5cm) distances, and negatively correlated over longer (≥10cm) distances. Analysis in 3 dimensions showed a similar pattern, with positive correlations over short distances and negative correlations at longer distances. At 35°C, insects were located significantly further from the grain surface than at 25 and 30°C. Dispersion metrics showed statistically significant aggregation in all cases. This is the first research using small sample units, high sampling intensities, and a range of temperatures, to show spatial structuring of R. dominica populations over short distances. This research will have significant implications for sampling in the stored grains industry

Better sampling strategies for stored grains: Final Report (CRC 30086)

The biosecurity problem addressed in this project was the need to develop methods to accurately determine the presence of insect pests and Emergency Plant Pests (EPPs) within storages that threaten the grain industry. Statistical sampling models used in Australia do not consider sampling throughout the grain storage and supply chain. As such, the aim of the project was to review current sampling methodologies and if necessary develop new methods to assess current sampling regimes, and to develop new sampling protocols to provide statistical confidence for insect detections. This necessitated the development of a new statistical sampling model. Rigorous testing demonstrated that the new model showed better capacity for detection of insect infestations than existing sampling models. This testing has subsequently been assessed and supported by international experts in the field of grains sampling

Review and gap analysis of stored grain sampling strategies

The grain production and export industry represents the largest agricultural industry in Australia. Australia is a world leading grain exporter, of high quality grain products, commanding a premium price for exported products. Australia’s reputation for high quality exports stems from the fact that Australian grains are required to meet stringent hygiene standards. The Australian grains industry, however, is facing new and significant pressures in relation to insect management, including phosphine resistance, deregistration of methyl bromide, reduction in use of traditional grain protectants, and an increased awareness in biosecurity worldwide. It is clear that new procedures to detect and manage pests of stored grain in the long term must be considered. The capacity to make these changes must be underpinned by an effective sampling regime

Case study 3: Sampling grain based on detection thresholds: implications for integrated pest management (Project - CRC 30086)

Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies lead to the cost effective management of pests in stored grains. Although significant advances have been made in fumigation technologies, storage types and insecticide treatment regimes worldwide, numerous countries still do not have a single cohesive integrated approach to pest management. This in part is due to the lack of simple, robust statistical sampling techniques for use in IPM, for example to detect insects at a pre-determined treatment threshold. In this study we extend theory previously developed in this project to consider detection thresholds of greater than zero, and show that this provides a sound basis for IPM decisions. Using a case study we demonstrate that setting a treatment threshold for fumigation of grain and using the new methodology for sampling can reduce the number of fumigations applied and thus substantially cut costs by up 17% depending on environmental conditions. The new methods we have developed and present in this report provide an important step towards evidence based IPM in Australia

Conceptual statistical framework for stored grains sampling (Project - CRC 30086)

Insects have been significant pests in stored grain products since the first storages were developed thousands of years ago (Rees 2004). Storage structures provide the ideal environment for insect populations to flourish. This is primarily due to the makeup of storage structures, as they provide a high resource environment protected from external conditions (Toes et al. 2005, Nansen et al. 2008)